Adobe’s Rich Internet Application Head Start is Huge

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Adobe I just finished watching Kevin Lynch’s presentation from the Adobe Analyst Summit and it got me pretty pumped about where the next generation of the web is going. I realize that a lot of this is Wall Street spin, but if you take a look at the numbers, Adobe is very well positioned to transform how people think of software and the web.

The numbers are great. Flash Player is on 98% of computers in the world, and by 2010 it will be on a billion devices. Flash Player 8 penetration is at 95% and the update mechanism ensures that when Adobe rolls out a new version of the Flash Player, people quickly and easily grab it. With Apollo, they’ve now embedded the platform into the desktop making the “Flash stack” run from devices, to video game systems, to web browsers, to the desktop. And all of these access points use the same tools and technologies so developers can become proficient and then access the entire spectrum.

There is still a lot of noise about open standards and how the browser (with no plugins) is the best delivery model. If you listen to the influentials, you’ll get that impression. However if you look at the apps people are creating, it’s clear that Flex has had a gigantic impact on the web. From startups to enterprise, Flex 2 has given developers access to the Flash Platform in a way that they didn’t have before. The result has been some astounding experiences that make people step back and say “whoa, this is cool!”. Picnik, Fauxto, Buzzword, StockFetcher, Fidelity Investments, and just this week Scrapblog had a blogger preview which resulted in a cascade of positive comments about how good the experience was.

Flex 2 really jump started things with Flash, and Adobe is hitting the web at the right time. Startups and Enterprises alike are realizing how important Rich Internet Applications are, and they’re embracing the Flash Platform. There will be bumps for Adobe. Already we’re seeing a developer squeeze for Flex and obviously Microsoft is going to bring big guns to the table. But Adobe has a head start, and as more and more people understand the value of RIAs, the market is just going to grow. That’s a good thing for Adobe’s tool business.

[tags]Adobe, Rich Internet Applications, Flex, Picnik, Fauxto, Buzzword, StockFetcher, Fidelity, Scrapblog[/tags]

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  5. Would Google Use Firefox as a Rich Internet Application Platform?

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  • barry.b

    I don’t believe it

    Kevin Lynch and Bruce Chizen made NOT ONE MENTION of ColdFusion. Sure the CF symbol was there in the slides but the actual words “Cold Fusion” was not uttered. Nada. Zilch. And yet lots of other stuff was.

    C’mon guys, say it with me: “Kol.d Fuz.yun”. You can do it, Adobe owns it now.

    In fact, I can’t find anytime these Adobe big-wigs have EVER directly referred to ColdFusion. So if they don’t take CF seriously, why should anyone else?

    Tim Buntel, you reading this?

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  • http://weblogs.macromedia.com/jd John Dowdell

    Chizen & ColdFusion, March 6:
    “This past year, we were a $200 million business (in this area). Had we been a standalone enterprise software company, the world would be writing about us. Unfortunately, in a relatively larger $3 billion company, that’s still a small number. It was 8 percent of our business last year.”
    http://news.com.com/2102-1012_3-6164519.html?tag=st.util.print

    Shantanu Narayen on ColdFusion:
    http://weblogs.macromedia.com/jd/archives/2007/01/cf_nugget.cfm

    Kevin Lynch is working the Platform group, and tends to focus his messages on the new things from that group. The universal client can request data from ColdFusion servers, but as Apollo and ColdFusion are not tightly bound, don’t be too surprised if you don’t hear one mentioned in an analyst presentation on the other.

    jd/adobe

  • barry.b

    JD,

    during that presentation, every time Chizen talked about server technologies, he deliberatly mentions LiveCycle. And FMS.

    is it so hard for him to slip the words “ColdFusion” in there?

    From what little I know, the Scorpio team seems to have done a damn fine job with this new version. It’d be a shame it becomes a best kept secret from people other than the programmers that use it.

    So lets see how effectively Chizen gets behind the CF8 launch in a few months time, eh? See how effectively the IT press hears those magic words “ColdFusion” from someone they listens to.

    I look forward to be proven wrong.

  • http://blog.digitalbackcountry.com Ryan Stewart

    I’m going to have to side with barry on this one. Not offense to Bruce, but if you asked him to describe what ColdFusion is, I’m not sure he could do it. Now he’s the CEO, so he has a lot of balls to juggle, but I’m pretty sure he could get close on Apollo, Flash and even Flex.

    ColdFusion is great for Adobe becuase it’s low maintenance, has a great user base, and it’s a cash cow. But it’s never going to be a flagship product, and it’s tough to innovate on a product like that.

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  • http://www.wobum.com Mary

    Thanks for the link to the presentation Ryan.

  • http://www.datravelers.com Alex

    Adobe is a mega-successful company.
    It must be really interesting to work there.

  • http://www.bau-treff.de Bob Baumeister

    I´m working with ColdFusion since the version 4.0 in 1999, it´s my favourite instrument for web development. If new functions are developed for ColdFusion to get close on Apollo, Flash or Flex it will be an innovation in the right direction…

  • http://www.enthaart.de Harry

    I read an interesting article at silicon.de that the Adobe Integrated Runtime is now fully integrated in ColdFusion, the final version should be available at the end of the year. This version will improve serious the data synchronization and the performance between both platforms. Further generations will further push the integration and they think of special developer tools.

  • http://www.t4tw.info Sebastian

    “Flash Player is on 98% of computers in the world, and by 2010 it will be on a billion devices” this is excellent news and impressive number. Thx for the link to Kevin Lynch’s presentation. Cheers

  • http://www.haar-frei.com Timo Beil

    If “Flash Player is on 98% of computers in the world, and by 2010 it will be on a billion devices” your new job at Adobe is totally assured and that´s good to hear in these times… Cheers, Timo

  • http://www.cddoma.com.ua John

    Very intresting :D write more….

  • http://www.wierszyki24.pl/ Peter

    ColdFusion is large for Adobe because it’s low down maintenance, has a grand user base, and it’s a money cow. But it’s in no way going to be a flagship product, and it’s tough to innovate on a product similar to that.

  • http://www.steuerberater-guide.de Ruedi

    ColdFusion is a real nice programming language, and if it is improved with Apollo functions it will be much better… i will try it…

  • http://xixxi.de doehler

    In my firm i´m working with CF for a long time, i like this programming language, for me it is much better to handle then php. If CF gets now an apollo function it is a big advancement for CF!

  • http://www.trkredi.com Kredi

    Interesting article.Thanks..

  • http://www.adacprogramming.com ADAC

    Look forward to the time when the search engines are able to parse Flash for text. Once that starts happening, Flash websites are going to be hard to beat.

  • http://www.meine-hochzeit.info Braut

    @ADAC: And why should flash websites be better than other websites?

  • http://www.adacprogramming.com ADAC

    Flash doesn’t always make a site better, but it does have some strong advantages when it comes to interacting with the visitor using graphics.

    One site I’ve seen as a good example looked like a book, when you clicked the corner of the page, the page would smoothly fold over like it was a real book page turning.

    Obviously, not all sites need this, but if you site would benefit from this type of graphical interaction, only Flash can do it well.

    Flash also gives the client side interaction speed of JavaScript, with closer to the security of server side programming. Although Ajax is helping server side to get better it still requires a postback.

  • http://www.radioexport.com Andrew

    I think a new generation will not be in a Flash. We are going to into a generation of updates in real-time, when flash technology does not have any future: labour time et.

  • http://ww.seriestube.com The Best of Youtube

    I Look forward to the time when the search engines are able to parse Flash for text.NEVER. Once that starts happening, Flash websites are going to be hard to beat.
    Lol, never. Sorry

  • http://www.dianlu.com 电炉

    thanks for you

  • http://www.alfredko.com expert

    lol, thats impossible.
    Flash is flash, it is NOT in raw format.
    The same like images (jpg).

  • http://automedia.co.za AOL

    Any technology has different target!

    All depends what is the aim of the developer)

    There is nothing universal and perfect!

  • http://www.maxioyun.net oyun

    One site I’ve seen as a good example looked like a book, when you clicked the corner of the page, the page would smoothly fold over like it was a real book page turning.

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