Morningstar Analyst: Ajax could eventually supplant Flash
Found via FlashCanon, according to Forbes, Toan Tran, an analyst with Morningstar believes that that Adobe’s biggest threats are going to come from Microsoft and Ajax. This is exactly the kind of thing that shows some analysts have no idea what they are talking about.
The threat to PDF (in the form of Microsoft’s XPS) may be founded, but I’m not sure how that will play out. I am very curious to see what Apollo has in store for PDF. Adobe has put a lot of energy into LiveCycle, which makes PDF a much more complete solution than just the format. I don’t think Microsoft is trying to compete at that level yet.
And as for Ajax? The quote is a doozy:
Tran also warns that Ajax, a free and universal technology, could eventually supplant Flash as the standard platform for Web applications.
Ajax will supplant Flash when I win the Miss USA pageant. But hey, I will take their “valuation” to the bank.
Posted in Adobe, Flash Player, Rich Internet Applications
August 29th, 2006 at 11:44 am
Hey Ryan,
If you want in on that Miss USA pageant let me know. One of my boys in L.A. is a plastic surgeon and bananas with the surgical knife. I don’t think it’ll help Ajax one bit but the right nip-tuck’ll get you free drinks at most bars!
August 29th, 2006 at 12:42 pm
I just read the article by Toan Tran and I think he’s either:
1) Genius – Give a bad evaluation to Adobe while he secretly goes bullish on them and picks up the shares in the background. Then when Adobe’s technologies gain ground (i.e. become profitable) on the web development sector, he and his followers will be in a good position to sell.
2) Pure dumbass – For thinking that technology that is free means that it will undercut Adobe’s margin so that they will be unprofitable. Asking an analyst about web development technology would be like me asking an eye doctor why is my foot sore. Anyone who has delved into both technologies will know whole heartily that they have their respective strengths and weaknesses in expressing solutions to various problem domains. Without a doubt, where Adobe comes out on top is delivering user experiences in addition to meeting functional requirements. The general audience that analyst is catering to needs to understand some level of proprietary is required to innovate the tools and technology to continue to deliver at a bleeding edge rate.
In conclusion, what do I know? I am not a financial analyst but I can tell you I’m just like you. I’m there in the trenches and see how it really is.
-mL
http://knowledge.lapasa.net
August 29th, 2006 at 2:37 pm
Leave it to an analyst to state the obvious. Truthfully they will co-exist. The vast majority of public sites will use ajax and most big corporate sites will use Flash/Flex. Corporates want support and fast development. If Ajax ever got a tool like flex builder, it’s possible it would get some of the corporate types but not a majority.
August 29th, 2006 at 3:31 pm
There are some apps where either technology could be used and developer may opt for Ajax but overall, the technologies have strengths and weaknesses that dicatate their usage in different situations.
August 29th, 2006 at 7:56 pm
diamondtearz, don’t tempt me with free drinks – that’s too much
.
Mark, I think you know more than a financial analyst. This kind of thing is close to my heart because I think it would be a blast to be a financial analyst and follow web companies. This guy just doesn’t seem to have a clue though. Maybe there is hope for me someday.
Rick and pwb, you’re right – I like to think you should use the best tool for the job. In some cases, this will be Ajax. But if we’re building web applications, Flash is the way to go.
Thanks for commenting guys.
August 31st, 2006 at 2:26 pm
Ajax analysis
Ajax analysis: Brandon Ellis raises some conversation about a Forbes article on something a financial analyst said… here’s the trigger quote: “Tran also warns that Ajax, a free and universal technology, could eventually supplant Flash as the standa…